The final leg of the Triple Crown is always packed with drama—but this year, the Belmont Stakes could be the main event. On June 7, the race returns to Saratoga Race Course, where a shortened 1¼-mile distance will test both early speed and late acceleration.
In the spotlight are a Kentucky Derby winner who bypassed the Preakness, a determined Preakness champ out to prove his staying power, and a fast-closing rising star who nearly upstaged them both.
It’s a deep, competitive field. And if you’re trying to make sense of it, the betting odds are already painting an intriguing picture.
Here’s what the current lines reveal—and why this year’s Belmont is shaping up to be more unpredictable than ever.
Sovereignty vs. Journalism: Why the Rematch Matters
The buildup feels familiar: two elite 3-year-olds, both with wins on the big stage, finally clashing head-to-head. Sovereignty took the Kentucky Derby in impressive style, rallying from behind on a sloppy Churchill Downs track. He skipped the Preakness to rest for the Belmont—a strategic move that left some fans feeling short-changed but now has everyone circling the upcoming race in red ink.
Journalism, meanwhile, responded with grit. After a rough trip in the Derby, he stormed to a Preakness win with one of the more aggressive stretch drives we’ve seen in years. He’s the kind of horse who doesn’t back down from a fight.
Right now, sportsbooks are giving Journalism the edge—he’s hovering around +180 across most platforms. The colt has five wins from his last six starts, including the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. More importantly, he has recorded a 108 Beyer Speed Figure, the highest in this year’s Belmont field.
Sovereignty, though, isn’t far behind. His Derby closing splits—:37.75 for the final three-eighths and :12.71 for the final furlong—speak volumes. He’s rested, he’s already beaten Journalism once, and his pedigree screams stamina. Depending on how he looks during workouts, you might see his odds narrow in the days leading up to post time.
If you’re weighing your early picks, now’s the time to check the latest Belmont Stakes odds and see how the market’s reacting to pre-race buzz. Odds don’t just reflect popularity—they reflect what bettors believe about form, fatigue, and timing. Use that insight to shape your own take.
Don’t Sleep on Baeza
While the rematch gets all the headlines, sharp bettors are already keeping an eye on Baeza. He’s not just a spoiler—he’s a serious threat.
Trained by John Shirreffs, Baeza showed big closing ability in the Kentucky Derby, coming from 15th to finish third. He was just a neck behind Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby and only 1 ¾ lengths off Sovereignty in the Run for the Roses.
That tells you two things:
- He’s not outclassed
- He’s closing the gap
Baeza’s pedigree doesn’t hurt, either. He’s a half-brother to both Mage (2023 Derby winner) and Dornoch (2024 Belmont winner). That’s strong company. And with five weeks of rest heading into Saratoga, he’s poised to take a leap forward.
Expect his odds to start around 6-1 or 8-1. That’s juicy value if you believe the third time’s the charm.
Who Else Is in the Mix?
After the big three, the field gets trickier—but not any less interesting.
Here are three names you’ll see near the middle of the board:
- Rodriguez – Baffert’s colt missed the Derby due to a minor injury, but he looked sharp in the Wood Memorial. He’s expected to be the pacesetter here, and if the early fractions are soft, he could steal it on the front end,
- Hill Road – Not flashy, but consistent. He ran third in the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and won the Peter Pan Stakes last month. He’s got the experience, but this will be his toughest test yet,
- Heart of Honor – The UAE Derby runner-up looked out of sorts in the Preakness, finishing fifth after a clunky start. But don’t count him out just yet—international horses often need a race to adjust to U.S. tracks. He’s a wildcard with upside.
Each of these horses could finish on the board in the right trip. That makes them prime options for exotics—especially in boxed exactas and trifectas where you’re banking on chaos or a missed step from the favorites.
Saratoga Track Conditions Could Shift the Field
Let’s not forget: this year’s Belmont isn’t run at Belmont Park. It’s at Saratoga. That means:
- The race is 1 ¼ miles instead of the usual 1 ½,
- Turns come faster,
- The surface tends to play differently, especially in early June.
Some horses just run better at Saratoga. If you’re studying past performances, pay extra attention to how these horses handled shorter stretches and tighter turns in their prep races. It matters more than most think.
Saratoga also tends to favor tactical speed—not all-out closing. That’s worth considering if you’re leaning heavily on Sovereignty or Baeza. A clean trip near the front could be the difference between a podium finish and being labeled an also-ran.
Betting Strategy: Spread or Stay Tight?
Favorites have fared well at the Belmont in recent years—think Justify, Tiz the Law, and Essential Quality. But don’t forget the underdogs. Arcangelo paid out nicely in 2023. Dornoch was 12-1 last year. Upsets happen, especially with a large field and a unique track setup.
Here’s a basic breakdown depending on your betting style:
- Straight win/place/show: Journalism is the most reliable option based on form. If you’re backing him, consider backing him across the board,
- Exotics (exacta/trifecta): Pair Journalism or Sovereignty with one long shot—Rodriguez or Hill Road offer good balance,
- Value plays: Baeza has the upside, and his price will be right.
Of course, odds will shift during race week. Late scratches, workout notes, and gate draws all have an impact. Stay updated and use the odds as a real-time tool—not just a starting point.
A Race That Lives Up to the Hype
We don’t always get a Derby-Preakness showdown like this. And even when we do, the results often fall short of expectations. But Journalism vs. Sovereignty isn’t your average storyline. Add in Baeza’s upward curve, a few sharp closers, and a tricky Saratoga track, and you’ve got a Belmont that actually delivers on the hype.
No one horse has run away with this Triple Crown season. That’s what makes it fun. The gap between good and great is razor-thin, and this race will test every ounce of stamina, smarts, and setup.
So whatever picks you’re leaning toward—favorites, value plays, or bombs—trust your read. Odds give you the starting line. The rest is up to the horses.
